Thoughts from The Vortex

Morning Gang!

The great Jeff Cooper pointed out today that we are exactly 7 months from the low. We are 7 years from the 2002 low. We are 70 months from the high of the first rally off the March 2003 low. The market plays out in 7s or known as the number of change/panic.

Are we getting a graceful exit on this backtest or are we set to explode one more time to the upside creating the narrowest of channels.

SRS or otherwise known as portfolio death looks good here as the real estate index gave a sell signal yesterday on an up day.

Hit em Hard

Thoughts from The Vortex

Hello Gang,

I have talked about the idea of the fear trade coming back for one last gasp before we get the inflation run everyone has been blabbering about for the past year. This monthly chart of the 30 year shows what has happened at 4%. Notice the crash and how quickly this happened. It now looks as if we are starting the test of the low in bond yields.

The other chart is the the housing sector which has now perfected a MA Topping pattern. Looking like the Fed is in buying mode in Bonds and this time housing won't play with the reduction of interest rates.

The SPX has now turned the weekly swing chart down today. I would look for a the S&P to try to find a low quickly today or tomorrow. This is called the theory of reflexivity. If we get continuation it will be a big change of character for the market and suggest a top for the year is in place. The SPX has found a low very quickly all the way up during this move. 180 degrees back is 1014. If a low is found an assault on 10,000 and 1120 comes quickly. My hunch is the top is in.

Dollar

This does not look good for King Dollar. This says Higher Oil,Stocks,Gold, interest rates.

Read this ..http://bit.ly/ExipX

Read this...http://bit.ly/zWPxa

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning Gang,

Very interesting action over the holiday weekend. The ES (SPX futures)skyrocketed on Sunday and Monday with all the Asian Markets. Triggered by Gold getting over $1000. This morning we are almost back to the week ago plunge. This backtest may be the graceful exit the market gives...or a large spike higher as we are now over the 1080 degree mark again. Today is giving a very good risk reward for participants to short with defined stops. The cycles of time begin in ernest Sept 9th and play out thru Oct.

Are we in Deflation? Robert Prechter basis his large pullback to come off this theory...What is gold saying about that. China today even said we are printing too much money and they are buying Gold and diversifying their reserves..

Are we going into inflationary times... all indicators say yes.

Or are we going into a combination of the two? As we unwind the debt crisis of the US homeowner and coming commercial real estate refinance season, will we see inflation move to cetain assets (financial,commodities,precious metals) and deflation in real estate. That is my hunch.

Cycles should start to exert here for a trend reversal if we are to get a meaningful pullback.


The Dow is on a nice 1,2,3 pullback on the daily chart and still within the LROD down on 9/1 we will see.

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning Gang

Well it seems the cycles are starting to play out. We have had a 90 degree overshoot of the 1012 mark. 1012 is 3 revolutions of 360 degrees up from the 666 low. The market often plays in 3s and 7s. As my last post talked about China and how its influence may push us around. The dollar is building a sneaky pattern here. If King dollar gets above 79.50 on the dx then the US stock markets may be in for the extended pullback.

Mr. Market has done a good job of holding both sides in the cautious camp. Surprise has always been to the upside. May be in for a big surprise if the dip buyers don't show up this time around.

Still looking for that last fear trade.

Signs all around....Government is upping margin req on leveraged ETFs and many firms are not allowing their sale. "The hand" may well be at work.

Yesterday GS printed a LROD (large range outside day) which engulfed 8 trading days... will we see follow thru. GS has also traced a mini head and shoulders patter with a second right shoulder (bearish). If Gs is also at the begining of tracing out a bigger head and shoulders, the head has formed and a pullback in the area of 135/140 looks in order.

Hit em Hard

Thoughts from the Vortex

One down day does not make a trend but we have to start somewhere. So far the 1012 number has shown extreme force on the wheel of time and price. If we are in a similiar market as the 1930 market we go to 151 SPX over the next year. I'm looking more from the wheel at 9 revolutions down as we are in the 477 390 camp for a secular bear market bottom. For that to happen we need to take out the 200 dma which will be a while. If we regain the 1012 mark a move through I believe 1200 is in the cards and fast.

Fireworks in China show that the US is losing its world ranking IMHO. If we are to start the grind lower, the fear and last flight to quality/safety should be at hand. My play will be the tmv tbt once we get the low as a 20+ bear market in bonds cycle should begin. I have a 12 yr old at home when he is in his 30s we should revisit the 1982 bull run again. :)

If the 30s play in about a year we will have the mother of all buy and hold scenarios take place. That was when the greats of the investing world made their names ie Templeton.

Mr . Dollar is trying again at the 50 dma. Will this be the time to bust amove higher? The second mouse gets the cheese. Oil should pullback very hard if that occurs, nat gas is already following supply and demad metrics. Is 25 dollar oil coming soon?

Tornado Out

Thoughts from the Vortex

It is quite interesting when you look at the battlefield from the Generals perch. They always seem to know when the battle is won or lost. General RIMM gave an expansion pivot sell signal today and El Jefe GS blasted thru the 20 period moving average. Goldman could be circling the wagons before making a thrust from this pattern which is called the Holy Grail. If GS does not rally tomorrow but extends lower a "tell" may be in for the financials.

Again GS has held the 166 number or 1080 degrees up from the low and printing some negative pattern....141 or 180 pullback should be in the cards.

The SPX has pivoted off the 1012 1080 degree mark as well ... does 880 come soon or 360 degrees down from here? Where are the Rough Riders to keep pushing up the Hill.

General AAPL tomorrow

Thoughts from the Vortex

The Nas has been the place of leadeship during this run but as you can see we are pushing hard against a big trendline. Below 1600 on the NQ looks like a pullback to begin

Interesting Stat

Our friends at Minyanville have put out a stat that is worth keeping in the noggin. The 1929-1930 bear market rally lasted 146 days and was up 46%. We are at 145 days and the same 46% rally. The market in 1930 went on to lose 85% from there which would take us to 150 SPX. I'm still thinking we get 1010 spx or 1080 degrees up from the low that marks a top.

"History does not repeat it rhymes"

Mark Twain

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning gang

I think this chart of the dollar spells it out. We are at a juncture. We have had 2 rule of 4 breakdowns which saw the SPX rally off the dollars fall. Yesterday was an interesting print as we may have carved out two feet or a double bottom. If the SPX is to move down this pattern needs to play out. we will see.

GS update

I'm taking half of the remaining GS short off here 160.35 +5.60 and moving stop to 164 on balance. GS printed double up inside on yesterdays daily chart and broke down today. 159.30 and we may see a Get out of Dodge for GS.

GS update

GS printed a NR7 on the daily chart on Friday. This usually signals volatility to come. 162.65 will trigger a short in the stock. it did this am and has not recovered much. This break again will be a second attempt...ie the 2nd mouse gets the cheese. 166 square out is exerting influence. Never ceases to amaze me how news and square outs occur. CTFC is investigating GS on Cap and Trade benefits. Heads up

Thoughts from the Vortex

Gang

The market has been in ramp mode for the past couple of weeks which has totally shocked and awed everyone, especially the bears. I have been following the 60 min spx chart for months now and have noticed the many rule of 4 breakouts and breakdowns it has been giving. There have been many more breakdowns! I believe we are setting up for a very nice one if the SPX comes in. On the chart at point 4 I think we could get a potential waterfall decline if we trigger this point. With the cycles pointing down into September we may have a nice setup at hand. Mr. Market will let us know the schedule.

GS

shorted 165.95 2pt stop

GS

GS touching 164 ...166 is on deck do we reverse from there? 166 is 1080 degrees up from the low on the square of 9 chart. Chinese stocks are reversing now.

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning gang!

The market is trying to breakout to the upside on all the companies posting better than expected earnings. Even though the earnings were derived from cost cutting and advances in technology which reduces headcount. Most companies are forecasting lower revenues in the 3rd qtr. Seems to me risk is high. The cycles are pointing down into September October. A break of 920 ish could begin a crash like decline. This can still happen even on the last couple of points to 980 or 1020 which is 1080 degrees up from the 666.

MS reported bad earnings today... it is running higher. I'm shorting here 27.15 2 pt stop swing

stopped out of all energy.....of course it reversed after. Looking to reenter.

Energy

stopped on USO and APC this am.. Just have HES

ES update

I took half off es +2 then stopped BE..... I put on another short at 935 ...ES has issued a triangle pendulum sell signal on the 10 min chart. ... I'm half out now...sory for the late update...


SPG looking good...if it can get thru 49.7 should move to 49

SPG

shorting SPG 50.41

energy

I was stopped APA, OIH
USO still on stop 34.7
HES stop 52.35
APC 47.01

We will see if we get any dollar help

energy

Update

Shorted es 934
stopped yesterday srs

Update

SRS

I'm going to try a new SRS position here 19.55 1pt stop

adding

adding HES USO APC and shorting OIH

Morning gang!

We are in Pamplona mode this am as INTC seems to have saved the day. I was stopped on APA but we are still fighting in the other oil shorts. Those are half positions and I am going to put on full positions today as the chart shows the oil and gas index is backtesting its 200 dma and has generated a -1+2 bearish setup. One can look to DUG ERY or shorting the OIH as well.

Heat Map

http://www.finviz.com/publish/071409/sp500_small1525.png

gs update

moving stop BE

gs

Shorting GS here 149.02

ES update

We were triggered early on the ES trade ...I believe we may be setting up a 2nd mouse move to the lows...

Swings Energy

I am putting out some energy swings here - half positions- will qualify tomorrow
short uso 32.34
short apa 70.83
short apc 43.50
short hes 48.97

I was stopped on srs and looking to reenter

Energy and SPX

Is Energy front running the SPX by about 2 weeks? I have not changed the energy chart since I posted it 2 weeks ago. Both are at the 20 dma now. Heads up!

Energy

Keep energy stocks on the radar....all are forming holy grail patterns on the dailies. Setting up for the next leg down. The Holy grail is the 20 dma.

ES

going to short ES on ORB break to downside

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning Gang!

Well the the big dog is out with earnings and witha large beat... Congress will be upset with the numbers IMHO. GS lost 21% on com real estate this qtr or close to 500 million. The death spike in CRE is getting closer. Also all you fundies out there how can COF still trade at 21 and CIT at 1 and about to BK?

I have put the FXI or the China index etf up to show the potential R4 breakdown. Keep it on the radar. Turnaround Tuesday may be at hand watching for up open and plunge. Hit em Hard

update

pot to 85.5 stop will close out at EOD

out of ARE SPG PSA


SRS hanging in there

POT

moving to 87

Tornado Conspiracy

Just going to put this out there...GS reports next Tuesday morning which I believe will be their best qtr ever. I have been talking ad nausea about 166 as the 1080 degree or 2 full revolutions up in price as the target for GS... Does GS call the top of this thing? Do we hear that Buffet exits GS on this move?

REITs

taking half off all of them +1 here....stops BE

POT

POT is at 86 half off the balance +5.5 stop now 89 and letting ride but a bounce should come here off the 150 and 200dma on the dailies.....If does not hold 80 in the cards and this time I mean today

POT

Target 86 ...I will show the anatomy of this trade later today as it had multiple setups that triggered. taking a little more off her +2.5....stop on balance BE

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning gang!

Market is churning this am. Our SRS trade is doing nicely. I shorted POT this am on the ORB break. I added small shorts on my fav REITs PSA ARE and SPG. I'm out half of POT as of this writing.

About the SPX 865ish is the 270 degree mark down that we bounced off of. 270 degrees is typically the area to take some off a trade as reversals happen in this area. Professor Cooper pointed out this am that the 28 and 35 trading day cycles have all nailed crashes. 7/22 will be the 28th day from this swing high of 956....I say if we bide time until then and move to 865 this time we will pick up speed as the 2nd time thru 270 degrees and the mouse will get the cheese.

Energy first
Other commodities next?
Financials?
then tech?

GS

out -1

GS

trying GS on upside ORB breakdown ...short 142.73

SRS

adding srs on ORB breakout

Dollar key

Yesterday the dollar was repelled by the 50dma. Do we recapture and spike to the cross? Then Rule of 4 breakout? If that happens we will be in full SPX slide. Keep it on the radar as 81.14 is the breakout.

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning Gang!

It looks like we are going to get a pop up open. We exited all our energy plays for nice profits yesterday and it looks like they are in rally mode this am. the second piece of SDS will be taken away this am on a gap down open. SRS second piece stop will be the only position we hold with a stop at 20.

The bulls are defending the 875 level with a vengence as well as the media. I would look for the action here ...if we go through 875 again I think there is no looking back as the pattern suggests a 820 810 target. I am in scalp mode now until we get a break up or down. Watching for an up open that does not hold. ORBs will give direction today.

Hit'em Hard!

Stalking

I am putting up the charts of these crack induced trading vehicles. TBT and TMV which are short the 20yr and 30yr bonds. This will be one of my favorite plays if if if if we get the major sell off. I believe the FEAR trade trumps the inflation trade. the TMV is 3x the 30yr

update

taking uso off here 32.80 +5.20

moving apc 41.5
moving APA to 66.5

sds got within .01 of +2 stops BE

Update

I'm taking all ung off here
moving uso stop to 34.50
moving apc to 42
moving apa to 67
USO 33.5

Taking half off srs here stops 20
take SDS half off 61.45

The energy plays may be on another leg down....but want to protect nice profits
BAC finally has broken 11.95 I believe 9 is in the cards

apc

moving to 43

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning gang

As we have come to the 882 number the first week of July as referenced by the Wheel of Time and Price. 882 is is termed a "master" square as it has vibrated off the high and the lows and the points in time. So where are we now? As the 200 dma is also at the 882 level, we need to let Mr. Market speak. Will it reverse , consolidate or accelerate. I would look for a bounce IMHO to look for possible entries as we are getting an up bounce. If we take out 850 I would suggest we are headed for a test of the lows. The finger pointing in Washington is now in full gear as the wasted first stimulus is running out of gas. Big Government is coming faster than people expect as newer regulations are being put in the CTFC as referenced by the large range down yesterday in CME and ICE. They are gapping down again this am. Oil will have a 50% pullback from within the move at 59 and I am close enough and will be looking to take off my energy plays today.

Hit em HArd!

update

moving APA stop to 68.5
moving APC stop to 44
USO to 35.10
UNG to 13
SRS will give a confirmed breakout at 22

Watching SDS 59.45 will be an R4 breakout swing trigger

SPX

We are at the 200dma on the spx now. Will be interesting to see the action. I believe the bulls will fight here. SPG broke and SRS is above its 50 dma for the first time in a very long time. Need to see if we get follow thru.

Thoughts from the Vortex

As we all come back from a relaxing weekend we find ourselves hit in the face riots in China, oil trading down hard and Europe in the red. I am taking half off UNG and USO this am and moving balance on apa and apc to +2 on their balances. We are getting a good gap down this am. 882 may be underway after our open and test of the 888 square. The 200 dma will be one to watch as it may give a get out of dodge sell signal.

Hit em HArd

4th of July

Everyone have a great 4th of July!

USO, UNG, APA,APC still looking good on the dailies

Swine Flu

Jeff Cooper pointed out today some interesting figures.

The Black Plague began around 666 years ago and peaked in what a 3 years later would equate to 2012

World population is currently just over 6.66 billion

The very large breakouts in South America are not getting much attention and their schools are being shut down for a month.

update

APC taking another half off +3 stops +1 now
apa taking another half off here +2.50 ish stop +1
USO is toying with me and I have taken off half +1.85 stop 37.25 now
UNG moving to BE now


The market is hanging on its lower ORB now....rally may be coming here or waterfall down to get a trend day going.

Giddy up

update

Gang all the energy swings are gapping lower today. Taking all half off since they have gapped over out 2pt profit. Stops Breakeven on balance. We may have a F3 vortex today! Giddy up

Thoughts from the Vortex

Again I have to say this is the hardest game on the planet and this am shows the reason why. As I review my swing positions for the past two weeks it is disappointing and quite humorous how Mr. Market has given a taste of the ice cream only to pull the bowl away before a real scoop has been given. But that is the game we have signed up to play and we play against Michael, Kobe and LeBron everyday.

As of writing this blog the futures are down hard and most of my candidates for today are gapping past the entry prices. I will wait for the opening range to develop try to gain an edge. Are we getting a rubber band pullback ready to make an advance past the highs or is the wheel of time and price exerting its influence and a 882/883 level square out of July 4 area playing out. We will see.

On the Radar

SRS 19.80 swing alert 2pt stop off yestedays lizard buy setup... I bought a small piece back at 19.25 as I was stopped on 2nd piece at 19 yesterday. Grrrrrrr

Energy plays working this am

Cycles and the 4th of July

You know I have been talking about the possible terrorist/war risk in the matter of cycles. Lets file this news story in the back of our minds as the world can move at a very rapid pace that not all understand...including this author.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1193941/North-Korea-plan-missile-launch-Hawaii-Independence-Day.html

AMZN

taking it all off here +2.5

AMZN

moving stop to 82.30

AMZN

half off last piece here +2.20 move balance to +1

USO and UNG

Both acting nicely...USO just triggered a R4 breakdown on the 60 min chart

update

AMZN move stop on first piece +1 and second be
SRS second piece out with a scratch
aapl out -2
gs out second piece be

Is this where we are?

apc

APC short 46

AMZN

AMZN short here 84

HES

moving daytrade stop to 53.5 or +.50

Position Update

SRS last piece still on stops 19
DVN last piece still on stops 55.7 target on next piece 50 should have covered first +2
HES daytrade stops now 53.8 should have covered first piece +1
AAPL still in at average of 142.20 2pt stop still on
APA still in short 72.25 2pt stop
UNG short 13.95 still on 2pt stop
USO short still on at 38 2pt stop today printing a nice large range reversal on the dailies
GS out first piece +2 stops still BE and 140 next target

gs update

out half here +2 stops breakeven.... GS is looking to print train tracks on the dailies today and below previous high which tells me of a possible 2b reversal. lets look for 140 as first target

DVN

half off +2 stops BE looks like energy breakdown is underway

chart revisit

HES

half off +1

gs update

putting stop in at +1

GS

Shorting 148.5 ...I'm a glutton for punishment

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning Gang

As we are here on the last day of the Qtr and the best performance of a QTR in more than a decade, Mr. Market is at an interesting juncture. We are basically 40% up from the low and 40 percent down from the high. Symmetry man symmetry. Cycles and balance, two terms I use very often to try to gain some kind of edge when setups occur. Remember setups are only setups and the market does what it wants.

So where do we go from here? To gain the edge we have to try to find some clues. On the wheel of Time and price July 1 squares with 882/883 and is in opposition of the 944 level or the previous Jan pivot. Will the plug get pulled after the QTR end mark ups are finished. Is the large head and shoulders formation on the spx taunting everyone to short, this author included, only to reverse taking us rather quickly to the 1011 area or 1080 degrees up from 666. Which would extend the larger inverse head and shoulders. No one said this was easy.

Have there been any clues in stockland. Hmmm.....no big run after 3Gs was released from the AAPL of the markets eye. AMZN, BIDU, etc all were week going into today. Now lets look at the real darlings of the market, energy and infustrucure. THe energy stocks are breaking down as oil is trying to power higher past 71 while nat gas is falling daily and confirmed by its underlying stocks. As of this writing UNG is breaking 14 premarket. RIG, HAL, AEM,FLS are all on breakdown patterns and a very crowed trade. Today will be fun!

On the radar.

UNG break of 14 short 2 pt stop. I enterd pre market at 13.95
ES from yesterday was stopped -3 overnight...hands off until we get a break one way
HES looks good to short at 54
SPG 50.8 short

ES and AAPL

I'm going to take aapl on an orb break at 142.4... this is an aggressive trade and will add on 142. I'm still in es with 924.5 stop ...It does seem Trend day is at hand

Nat Gas

Gang this is one of my fav setups. It is the Rule of 4 that I speak of many times.. 3 point touchs come very often but rarely the 4th. I'm showing this to explain what I was looking at on friday when I called the ung short at 14. If that Trendline breaks and it looks like it might this darling could get some downside giddy up. Let it come.

AAPL

trigger will be 142

ES

trying again 921.5 short also looking to short aapl on the R4 break setting up on the 10 min.

SPX

As I have been stopped out by the morning whip around I am going back to the 60 min SPX chart that has been working very well. Wondering if we are in the 3 drives to a high pattern as well as all roads lead to the 940 area on the trendlines. Is it too convenient to end the QTR at 940. Watching NQ as the techies have been running the market as of late. AAPL is breaking down now. A trade back into the ORB on the ES sets up a fast move down. Fun and games all around.

GS

out -2

es

out -2

ES

shorting es 912.5

update

small position in GS short still taking into the weekend
USO short still on
apa in
dvn in

These stocks have printed NR7s today expect volatility monday

es

stopped -3

apa

swing short here 72.25

ES

shorted again 912

shortin UNG

14 is the trigger

es trade

took half off +2 had a 915 stop we will see what happens now

GS

shorting here 146.5 swing half position

ES

shorting es here 911

DVN

shorting here 55.7 swing

Thoughts from the Vortex 2

Blogger acting up.
DX chart still in tact but getting worrisome for the stock market bears.

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning Gang!

Well it looks like Mr. Market is making it difficult to get on the train either up or down. As we approach the qtr end mark (which everyone is talking about) did we see the effects yesterday? I have put my 3 charts up again to look for clues and an edge once again. Does the SPX have a magnet into next week to 940 where all trendlines converge or do we resume the downside pattern of the -1+2 setups off the daily.

Energy seems to be playing out what I was looking for and we are on day 3 of the pullback I mentioned. I have many O&G palys on the radar as well as the USO swinger put on yesterday. THe UNG looks very weak as well as those stocks may be telegraphing the bigger downleg I mentioned last week.

USO

shorting USO here 38 swing 2pt stop

ES update

out half here +3

ES

shorted es 915.25

MON

moving stop to 74.8 or +.40

update

Stopped GS scratch second piece
stopped spg -1

We are now back to the breakdown pivot on SPX

AAPL

taking a half position short aapl here 138.1 swing

Mon

out half here +1 stops breakeven

ES

Morning gang!

Well the overnight session took out my es position at 904 and all I can say is grrrrrrrrrrrr. ES is in down mode now. With the cash spx set to gap down on the open I believe the 888 or 720 degrees up from 666 gets busted today and sets the stage for the 850 test. Dollar is still in rally mode and I believe is the key to the direction.

On the radar

MON short 75.2
SPG short 49.85

Position updates
second piece GS stop still breakeven 144.15 we covered first piece +2
second piece SRS stop still 19 we sold first piece +2

We are in an interesting time as we are at a cyclical time for the Federal Reserve as it was born on June 13th 1913 and we are in for rough times at the FED as evident by the current scandal around the Chairman. This could be a difficult road for the FED in keeping its credibility in tact which in turn may rule the direction of the market. The summer solstice is at hand and the market wanting to test the 888 number on the wheel of time and price. It bears out that on the wheel 521 is on the same vector as the 666 low and a possible square out occuring the first week of December. This would also take us to the 1995 area of the beginning of the 5 year speculative internet bull market. Which seems to me when all the excess began. 477 is also on the same vector.

GS

out half +2 on GS balance breakeven. and I'm not moving my ES stop from 904 Time to put Tom Petty on Breakdown go ahead give it to me!

GS and ES

Taking half off es +10 and moving stops on GS to breakeven now. 142.15 take half off GS

Dollar

DX may be attempting a 3 drives to a high on the 10 min ...my target is 81.20 dx today

ES

moving es balance to 904 stop

FED

I'm reading FED out of bullets and deflation coming

stops

Tighten everything up. Fun about to get going

Thoughts from the Vortex

I don't know whats going on but just observing the ramp job in the dollar now. Maybe just positioning before the FED or something more ominous. Take a look at TMV and the large head and shoulders that has formed . If the fear trade is coming back on the ultra uber mover trades to 60. We are setting up a bearish pattern in the indexs now. I referenced the oil and gas sector as one to watch as we may get a 2 to 3 day pullback of the rubber band and a break to the downside.

ES update

took half off +1 stop now 905

GS

going to short 144.15 swing trade

ES

es short 905

Market

We are at FED day and coming off a NR7 day on the daily. It looks like we had a thrust pause pivot scenario setting up. I would look to yesterdays low as a signal we trade to the 850 level and a break of 850 sets up a test of the lows at 666.

Energy

I'm posting this chart of the oil and gas index to show what I'm looking at and will trade if the setup presents itself.

Radar

faz 5.6
skf 46.6
spg 48.9 short

POT

out -1

USO

covering half USO here +.2 stop BE on balance looking for pop to renter

pot

Long POT here 90.5

SPX chart revisit

I putting up my 60 min spx chart again to see if it is playing out as expected. I believe we now have a change of character in the market now. Last week the weekly swing chart turned down now we have a new weekly low in place and suggest a more continued pullback. My 60 min chart shows the 3 r4 breakdowns and the final one breaking now. There is a much bigger Rule of 4 down at 882 on the SPX daily chart.

USO

short 37

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning Gang!

This week shapes up to be an interesting one. As I write this the the LROD (large range outside day) down on the USO is exerting its influence as all the energy names are gapping down. APA was on the radar this morning as a day short but has gapped past my comfort level.

I am going to short a small position in oil this am on the open. Uso 37.45 is the trigger. With oil seeming to be topping out and many of the energy printing distribution patterns will this area be the one to get the market going on the downside. I'm watching now the fins to give the next clue. Keep an eye towards the housing index as it is breaking its head and shoulders pattern to the downside now. 1 2 3 and they all fall... again RIMM missing is not good for the tech sector and IMHO the last nail. AAPL may be on a buyem to bangem pattern.


Stop still in on second piece of SRS at 19

Hitem Hard!

update

out GS -2 HES +.35 apc second piece +.60

HES APC trade

moving HES to 53.01 and APC 45.65

HES APC trade

take half off APC here +1 Hes is trying stops the same

HES APC trade

putting hes at breakeven and APC 46 as fast moves come from false moves

GS

going to take gs for a swing at 141.8 orb break 2pt stop

HES

back on HES higher risk here 53.35 and apc here

HES

out hes scratch

Does AAPL have a worm in it

I just picked up my new IPHONE this am and there were 3 people at the ATT store....hmmm tv hype job ...will watch action

Vortex Day

Options expy today. Lets watch the fun and games in the big boys (aapl,rimm,gs,bidu,ma) Backtest of the trendline I mentioned on the spx 60 min looks to be happening as mentioned. The dollar may trace out a NR7 day today (narrowest range in 7 days) usually signals volatility to come. My hunch is higher but we will see.

BAC seems to be the real mover of the market

Twisters

HES 53.35 short day
AEM 53.8 long swing
spg short on ORB

Hit em hard

Rimm Job

Did someone know that RIMM would be light. Wonder who was liquidating yesterday morning? And we are on a level playing field? Not a good set up for this earnings season when the darling starts off missing and YRC Worldwide may go BK on the heels of FDX forecast 2 days ago. Markets turn on a dime most traders can't.

es trade

out scratch on balance. boring day.... seeing rollover tomorrow if the last bar gets taken out on the 60 min

es trade

out half +2 here

es trade

taking on a 913.25 trigger short

The USO made a 1080 degree low or 3 full revolutions down in price and has rallied nicely will 360 degrees in time or the week of 7/10 begin the bigger pullback in oil? The USO never rallied and its 360 move in time is 7/3. If the ung is to make 3 full revolutions down it would need to pull back to around 4. I will have these 2 on the radar around this time.

Sitting Bull

Is Sitting Bull the dollar waiting to explode out of this inverted head and shoulders pattern . I still have an 83 target

ES

Do we have the making for some late day fun here?

update

out sohu -1 I will look again if market gets going again.

hes is an orb trade now

53.52

Cavalry

The horsemen are showing up right on time at the 850 reversal time. Is it General Sherman or Custer. Watch out Atlanta

China

lets look at sohu 64.65 long day pick. Bidu is not participating

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning gang!

I am always fascinated by market psychology and the way human interaction makes up that psychology. I believe humans are inherently positive biased to everything. How we love to prop up our heroes only to let the human frailty of the hero begin to eat away at his glow only to have the masses rush in to prop back up.

The market is no different only more extreme. While it is difficult to short the market or individual stocks, it has always amazed me how swift and hard plunges come. I have been called a perma bear often by many of my readers yet I would like to say I always feel I'm trying to find the turn up for the longer term play. Will the mighty and famous buy and holders finally lose their fame? I think not. And really what is smart money and dumb money? Will the cavalry show up today?

watching HES on an orb breakdown or 52.55 to short whichever comes first.

SPG short 49.35

These are day trades 1 pt stops

Looking to see if the SPX tests its 60 min trendline or 20 ma on the 60 min chart.

Thoughts from the Vortex

I have included this chart of the SPX on a 60 min time frame. I'm always looking for the rule of 4 patterns as many of you know. What is interesting is that we got multiple signals on this one. I'm just curious if we rollover here after O speaks. We have received the first +1-2 pattern as well so watching the action at this level for direction. Still looking for 888 level today. I have a 836 first target on this pullback as it is 360 degrees down from the 956 swing high.

GS and ES

stopped on gs at 141 + 3.38 and ES at 908 +12.25

gs update

took half of my remaing gs off at 139.19 or 90 degress off the high stop to 141

ES update

moving stop to 908

Rimm update

rimm is on a 7 bar consolidation pattern here....Gann said 3s and 7s and 7 is the number of panic. i'm not taking this trade but will use to guide direction. If rimm breaks it goes to 74 quickly

SRS update

half off +2 stops BE on the balance.

SRS

SRS is toying with me as we got to 20.99 order still in.

SRS

GS

Taking half GS off here +2 stops breakeven

SPX

I did not get my gap down this am but I believe we test the 888 number on the spx. 888 is 720 degrees up from the 666 low and it vibrates today on the wheel. We should get support there. We will see i'm still short ES from 920.25

Housing update

I've posted this chart before in the early formation of the head and shoulders pattern. It looks like it is breaking now. Hmm...I thought they said the housing market has bottomed. Remember this one was the first to crack.

Rimm Job

out last piece +6

Rimm update

Big liquidation happening covering here

F2 day

Well we closed below the 920 mark today. I am looking for more continuation in the coming weeks ahead especially if the 888 spx gets busted. Nice to catch +13 on the es today. Possible gap down scenario for tomorrow. Defensive team on the field!

GS held up in the carnage still short
RIMM worked out nicely for us stop 81.5 +1.5
SRS is making a run...using SPG and PSA as proxies here. stop 19 or breakeven
ES 917 stop on last piece wanting to let this one run if possible

Hit'em Hard!

Rimm update

moving stop to +1.5 now on balance

GS

ORB breakdown here

Rimm update

another half off at 81 move stops to +1

SRS

Half off srs at 21 or +2 stops now at BE....looks like the real estate trade I have been looking for may be underway

Rimm Job

taking half of rimm off here +1 and change stops to +.25

es trade

another one off here +7 move stop on my last one +3

Lots of posts today

I'm writing a bunch today due to the belief we are at an inflection point. 950 square out mentioned ad nausea with 920 support resonating off 3/6 low on the Wheel. The first week of June being a 90 degree in time move as well.

12.89 is 360 degrees up from the low on BAC and notice the influence this area has. A move to 11 If we get a qualified break of this level. With BAC converting its preferreds and the supply hitting ... remember news breaks with cycles as the great WD Gann quotes

What I'm watching

RIMM should get going on a trade now below 82.80 GS to test its upper ORB and a break should see a fast move down. BAC is the tell of the market. SRS is holding in there. And our ES trade is looking Cheey as the 2nd mouse got the cheese and gave us a nice nibble today and a potential cascade sell off may begin on a break of 915

es trade

stops BE on balance

es trade

out es half +2 now

es

im short 920.25

Grails

All the grail patterns I mentioned are exerting their influence today. GS being one of them. Will the 2nd mouse get the cheese on the 920.25 es orb break?

ES

short ES on the ORB break

Big Boys

I'm putting some shorts out here Rimm 83 .. more and stalking Bidu again

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning gang!

Will turnaround Tuesday come to play today like it has during this run? My bet is no this time. With the 950 square out playing out and a change in the character in the big boys on the playground (aapl, rimm, bidu, amzn). We have discussed here the similarities to the previous bear markets and the tests that should come. We WILL NOT KNOW if this is a new bull market until we get the reaction off the first correction move off the bottom. Will we have another 1929-30 market or the 1937-38 or the 73-74 market or better 2003 all over again?

I was sent today a chart of the ewz (Brazil market). Brazil is the largest trading partner with China. It is up 100% from the low not our 30%. It may also be showing the crack in the commodity trade as well. Hit em Hard

The Wheel

I have posted the wheel of time and price and the areas of influence. 950 was tested on 6/5 as a time/price whisch was a 90 degreee from the 3/6 square and previous resistance.

I also have included a chart of square levels...notice 925 is 90 deg and the 20 dma. Again, watching for action here since the weekly swing chart has turned down today.

The dollar follow up

Looks like we have confirmed

SPX

Weekly chart has now turned down. Previous two times this has happened the index immediatly found a low and reversed (sign of the bull). It is also doing this right at the 20 dma or the holy grail. If the 20 does not hold and we close below 920 the bigger correction should be underway. The 950 time and price square out seemed to exert its influence.

Dollar

It is always better not to anticipate and the reason I'm putting this chart back up as it is unfolding as we are anticipating.... If this accelerates the bears will be in control of the equity markets.

ES

Watching the 60 min on the ES for a R$ break

SRS

SRS that I have been stalking is setting up now as it is breaking out of this wedge. I am buying here at 19

Bidu

Good lesson for a the 3 drives move...I will short via puts below the tail at 293

Dollar update

I'm a doallar bull until h is broken...

Market

Today is a square out of 6/5 date and the 950 level on the SPX... Again is it not interesting how those squares play out in the voodoo science. I'm watching the signs to see if we have a change in trend taking place or a power surge to the upside around 1012 spx.

These charts so some interesting tells. I'm having trouble posting a chart of the square of ( chart but I will post when it is resolved.

SRS update

Hello Gang!

Many know I have been stalking this trade for a while. Notice the SRS is beginning to squeeze the bands now (sig volatility coming). the housing index is now breaking down out of a HS pattern (this may lead to an overall pull back in the market as well. I will be buying SRS on a breakout.

Hit em Hard