Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Position Update
SRS last piece still on stops 19
DVN last piece still on stops 55.7 target on next piece 50 should have covered first +2
HES daytrade stops now 53.8 should have covered first piece +1
AAPL still in at average of 142.20 2pt stop still on
APA still in short 72.25 2pt stop
UNG short 13.95 still on 2pt stop
USO short still on at 38 2pt stop today printing a nice large range reversal on the dailies
GS out first piece +2 stops still BE and 140 next target
DVN last piece still on stops 55.7 target on next piece 50 should have covered first +2
HES daytrade stops now 53.8 should have covered first piece +1
AAPL still in at average of 142.20 2pt stop still on
APA still in short 72.25 2pt stop
UNG short 13.95 still on 2pt stop
USO short still on at 38 2pt stop today printing a nice large range reversal on the dailies
GS out first piece +2 stops still BE and 140 next target
gs update
out half here +2 stops breakeven.... GS is looking to print train tracks on the dailies today and below previous high which tells me of a possible 2b reversal. lets look for 140 as first target
Thoughts from the Vortex
Morning Gang
As we are here on the last day of the Qtr and the best performance of a QTR in more than a decade, Mr. Market is at an interesting juncture. We are basically 40% up from the low and 40 percent down from the high. Symmetry man symmetry. Cycles and balance, two terms I use very often to try to gain some kind of edge when setups occur. Remember setups are only setups and the market does what it wants.
So where do we go from here? To gain the edge we have to try to find some clues. On the wheel of Time and price July 1 squares with 882/883 and is in opposition of the 944 level or the previous Jan pivot. Will the plug get pulled after the QTR end mark ups are finished. Is the large head and shoulders formation on the spx taunting everyone to short, this author included, only to reverse taking us rather quickly to the 1011 area or 1080 degrees up from 666. Which would extend the larger inverse head and shoulders. No one said this was easy.
Have there been any clues in stockland. Hmmm.....no big run after 3Gs was released from the AAPL of the markets eye. AMZN, BIDU, etc all were week going into today. Now lets look at the real darlings of the market, energy and infustrucure. THe energy stocks are breaking down as oil is trying to power higher past 71 while nat gas is falling daily and confirmed by its underlying stocks. As of this writing UNG is breaking 14 premarket. RIG, HAL, AEM,FLS are all on breakdown patterns and a very crowed trade. Today will be fun!
On the radar.
UNG break of 14 short 2 pt stop. I enterd pre market at 13.95
ES from yesterday was stopped -3 overnight...hands off until we get a break one way
HES looks good to short at 54
SPG 50.8 short
Monday, June 29, 2009
ES and AAPL
I'm going to take aapl on an orb break at 142.4... this is an aggressive trade and will add on 142. I'm still in es with 924.5 stop ...It does seem Trend day is at hand
Nat Gas
Gang this is one of my fav setups. It is the Rule of 4 that I speak of many times.. 3 point touchs come very often but rarely the 4th. I'm showing this to explain what I was looking at on friday when I called the ung short at 14. If that Trendline breaks and it looks like it might this darling could get some downside giddy up. Let it come.
SPX
As I have been stopped out by the morning whip around I am going back to the 60 min SPX chart that has been working very well. Wondering if we are in the 3 drives to a high pattern as well as all roads lead to the 940 area on the trendlines. Is it too convenient to end the QTR at 940. Watching NQ as the techies have been running the market as of late. AAPL is breaking down now. A trade back into the ORB on the ES sets up a fast move down. Fun and games all around.
Friday, June 26, 2009
update
small position in GS short still taking into the weekend
USO short still on
apa in
dvn in
These stocks have printed NR7s today expect volatility monday
USO short still on
apa in
dvn in
These stocks have printed NR7s today expect volatility monday
Thoughts from the Vortex 2
Blogger acting up.
DX chart still in tact but getting worrisome for the stock market bears.
Thoughts from the Vortex
Morning Gang!
Well it looks like Mr. Market is making it difficult to get on the train either up or down. As we approach the qtr end mark (which everyone is talking about) did we see the effects yesterday? I have put my 3 charts up again to look for clues and an edge once again. Does the SPX have a magnet into next week to 940 where all trendlines converge or do we resume the downside pattern of the -1+2 setups off the daily.
Energy seems to be playing out what I was looking for and we are on day 3 of the pullback I mentioned. I have many O&G palys on the radar as well as the USO swinger put on yesterday. THe UNG looks very weak as well as those stocks may be telegraphing the bigger downleg I mentioned last week.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
ES
Morning gang!
Well the overnight session took out my es position at 904 and all I can say is grrrrrrrrrrrr. ES is in down mode now. With the cash spx set to gap down on the open I believe the 888 or 720 degrees up from 666 gets busted today and sets the stage for the 850 test. Dollar is still in rally mode and I believe is the key to the direction.
On the radar
MON short 75.2
SPG short 49.85
Position updates
second piece GS stop still breakeven 144.15 we covered first piece +2
second piece SRS stop still 19 we sold first piece +2
We are in an interesting time as we are at a cyclical time for the Federal Reserve as it was born on June 13th 1913 and we are in for rough times at the FED as evident by the current scandal around the Chairman. This could be a difficult road for the FED in keeping its credibility in tact which in turn may rule the direction of the market. The summer solstice is at hand and the market wanting to test the 888 number on the wheel of time and price. It bears out that on the wheel 521 is on the same vector as the 666 low and a possible square out occuring the first week of December. This would also take us to the 1995 area of the beginning of the 5 year speculative internet bull market. Which seems to me when all the excess began. 477 is also on the same vector.
Well the overnight session took out my es position at 904 and all I can say is grrrrrrrrrrrr. ES is in down mode now. With the cash spx set to gap down on the open I believe the 888 or 720 degrees up from 666 gets busted today and sets the stage for the 850 test. Dollar is still in rally mode and I believe is the key to the direction.
On the radar
MON short 75.2
SPG short 49.85
Position updates
second piece GS stop still breakeven 144.15 we covered first piece +2
second piece SRS stop still 19 we sold first piece +2
We are in an interesting time as we are at a cyclical time for the Federal Reserve as it was born on June 13th 1913 and we are in for rough times at the FED as evident by the current scandal around the Chairman. This could be a difficult road for the FED in keeping its credibility in tact which in turn may rule the direction of the market. The summer solstice is at hand and the market wanting to test the 888 number on the wheel of time and price. It bears out that on the wheel 521 is on the same vector as the 666 low and a possible square out occuring the first week of December. This would also take us to the 1995 area of the beginning of the 5 year speculative internet bull market. Which seems to me when all the excess began. 477 is also on the same vector.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
GS
out half +2 on GS balance breakeven. and I'm not moving my ES stop from 904 Time to put Tom Petty on Breakdown go ahead give it to me!
Thoughts from the Vortex
I don't know whats going on but just observing the ramp job in the dollar now. Maybe just positioning before the FED or something more ominous. Take a look at TMV and the large head and shoulders that has formed . If the fear trade is coming back on the ultra uber mover trades to 60. We are setting up a bearish pattern in the indexs now. I referenced the oil and gas sector as one to watch as we may get a 2 to 3 day pullback of the rubber band and a break to the downside.
Market
We are at FED day and coming off a NR7 day on the daily. It looks like we had a thrust pause pivot scenario setting up. I would look to yesterdays low as a signal we trade to the 850 level and a break of 850 sets up a test of the lows at 666.
Energy
I'm posting this chart of the oil and gas index to show what I'm looking at and will trade if the setup presents itself.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Monday, June 22, 2009
SPX chart revisit
I putting up my 60 min spx chart again to see if it is playing out as expected. I believe we now have a change of character in the market now. Last week the weekly swing chart turned down now we have a new weekly low in place and suggest a more continued pullback. My 60 min chart shows the 3 r4 breakdowns and the final one breaking now. There is a much bigger Rule of 4 down at 882 on the SPX daily chart.
Thoughts from the Vortex
Morning Gang!
This week shapes up to be an interesting one. As I write this the the LROD (large range outside day) down on the USO is exerting its influence as all the energy names are gapping down. APA was on the radar this morning as a day short but has gapped past my comfort level.
I am going to short a small position in oil this am on the open. Uso 37.45 is the trigger. With oil seeming to be topping out and many of the energy printing distribution patterns will this area be the one to get the market going on the downside. I'm watching now the fins to give the next clue. Keep an eye towards the housing index as it is breaking its head and shoulders pattern to the downside now. 1 2 3 and they all fall... again RIMM missing is not good for the tech sector and IMHO the last nail. AAPL may be on a buyem to bangem pattern.
Stop still in on second piece of SRS at 19
Hitem Hard!
This week shapes up to be an interesting one. As I write this the the LROD (large range outside day) down on the USO is exerting its influence as all the energy names are gapping down. APA was on the radar this morning as a day short but has gapped past my comfort level.
I am going to short a small position in oil this am on the open. Uso 37.45 is the trigger. With oil seeming to be topping out and many of the energy printing distribution patterns will this area be the one to get the market going on the downside. I'm watching now the fins to give the next clue. Keep an eye towards the housing index as it is breaking its head and shoulders pattern to the downside now. 1 2 3 and they all fall... again RIMM missing is not good for the tech sector and IMHO the last nail. AAPL may be on a buyem to bangem pattern.
Stop still in on second piece of SRS at 19
Hitem Hard!
Friday, June 19, 2009
Does AAPL have a worm in it
I just picked up my new IPHONE this am and there were 3 people at the ATT store....hmmm tv hype job ...will watch action
Vortex Day
Options expy today. Lets watch the fun and games in the big boys (aapl,rimm,gs,bidu,ma) Backtest of the trendline I mentioned on the spx 60 min looks to be happening as mentioned. The dollar may trace out a NR7 day today (narrowest range in 7 days) usually signals volatility to come. My hunch is higher but we will see.
BAC seems to be the real mover of the market
Twisters
HES 53.35 short day
AEM 53.8 long swing
spg short on ORB
Hit em hard
BAC seems to be the real mover of the market
Twisters
HES 53.35 short day
AEM 53.8 long swing
spg short on ORB
Hit em hard
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Rimm Job
Did someone know that RIMM would be light. Wonder who was liquidating yesterday morning? And we are on a level playing field? Not a good set up for this earnings season when the darling starts off missing and YRC Worldwide may go BK on the heels of FDX forecast 2 days ago. Markets turn on a dime most traders can't.
es trade
out scratch on balance. boring day.... seeing rollover tomorrow if the last bar gets taken out on the 60 min
The USO made a 1080 degree low or 3 full revolutions down in price and has rallied nicely will 360 degrees in time or the week of 7/10 begin the bigger pullback in oil? The USO never rallied and its 360 move in time is 7/3. If the ung is to make 3 full revolutions down it would need to pull back to around 4. I will have these 2 on the radar around this time.
Cavalry
The horsemen are showing up right on time at the 850 reversal time. Is it General Sherman or Custer. Watch out Atlanta
Thoughts from the Vortex
Morning gang!
I am always fascinated by market psychology and the way human interaction makes up that psychology. I believe humans are inherently positive biased to everything. How we love to prop up our heroes only to let the human frailty of the hero begin to eat away at his glow only to have the masses rush in to prop back up.
The market is no different only more extreme. While it is difficult to short the market or individual stocks, it has always amazed me how swift and hard plunges come. I have been called a perma bear often by many of my readers yet I would like to say I always feel I'm trying to find the turn up for the longer term play. Will the mighty and famous buy and holders finally lose their fame? I think not. And really what is smart money and dumb money? Will the cavalry show up today?
watching HES on an orb breakdown or 52.55 to short whichever comes first.
SPG short 49.35
These are day trades 1 pt stops
Looking to see if the SPX tests its 60 min trendline or 20 ma on the 60 min chart.
I am always fascinated by market psychology and the way human interaction makes up that psychology. I believe humans are inherently positive biased to everything. How we love to prop up our heroes only to let the human frailty of the hero begin to eat away at his glow only to have the masses rush in to prop back up.
The market is no different only more extreme. While it is difficult to short the market or individual stocks, it has always amazed me how swift and hard plunges come. I have been called a perma bear often by many of my readers yet I would like to say I always feel I'm trying to find the turn up for the longer term play. Will the mighty and famous buy and holders finally lose their fame? I think not. And really what is smart money and dumb money? Will the cavalry show up today?
watching HES on an orb breakdown or 52.55 to short whichever comes first.
SPG short 49.35
These are day trades 1 pt stops
Looking to see if the SPX tests its 60 min trendline or 20 ma on the 60 min chart.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Thoughts from the Vortex
I have included this chart of the SPX on a 60 min time frame. I'm always looking for the rule of 4 patterns as many of you know. What is interesting is that we got multiple signals on this one. I'm just curious if we rollover here after O speaks. We have received the first +1-2 pattern as well so watching the action at this level for direction. Still looking for 888 level today. I have a 836 first target on this pullback as it is 360 degrees down from the 956 swing high.
Rimm update
rimm is on a 7 bar consolidation pattern here....Gann said 3s and 7s and 7 is the number of panic. i'm not taking this trade but will use to guide direction. If rimm breaks it goes to 74 quickly
SPX
I did not get my gap down this am but I believe we test the 888 number on the spx. 888 is 720 degrees up from the 666 low and it vibrates today on the wheel. We should get support there. We will see i'm still short ES from 920.25
Housing update
I've posted this chart before in the early formation of the head and shoulders pattern. It looks like it is breaking now. Hmm...I thought they said the housing market has bottomed. Remember this one was the first to crack.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
F2 day
Well we closed below the 920 mark today. I am looking for more continuation in the coming weeks ahead especially if the 888 spx gets busted. Nice to catch +13 on the es today. Possible gap down scenario for tomorrow. Defensive team on the field!
GS held up in the carnage still short
RIMM worked out nicely for us stop 81.5 +1.5
SRS is making a run...using SPG and PSA as proxies here. stop 19 or breakeven
ES 917 stop on last piece wanting to let this one run if possible
Hit'em Hard!
GS held up in the carnage still short
RIMM worked out nicely for us stop 81.5 +1.5
SRS is making a run...using SPG and PSA as proxies here. stop 19 or breakeven
ES 917 stop on last piece wanting to let this one run if possible
Hit'em Hard!
SRS
Half off srs at 21 or +2 stops now at BE....looks like the real estate trade I have been looking for may be underway
Lots of posts today
I'm writing a bunch today due to the belief we are at an inflection point. 950 square out mentioned ad nausea with 920 support resonating off 3/6 low on the Wheel. The first week of June being a 90 degree in time move as well.
12.89 is 360 degrees up from the low on BAC and notice the influence this area has. A move to 11 If we get a qualified break of this level. With BAC converting its preferreds and the supply hitting ... remember news breaks with cycles as the great WD Gann quotes
12.89 is 360 degrees up from the low on BAC and notice the influence this area has. A move to 11 If we get a qualified break of this level. With BAC converting its preferreds and the supply hitting ... remember news breaks with cycles as the great WD Gann quotes
What I'm watching
RIMM should get going on a trade now below 82.80 GS to test its upper ORB and a break should see a fast move down. BAC is the tell of the market. SRS is holding in there. And our ES trade is looking Cheey as the 2nd mouse got the cheese and gave us a nice nibble today and a potential cascade sell off may begin on a break of 915
Grails
All the grail patterns I mentioned are exerting their influence today. GS being one of them. Will the 2nd mouse get the cheese on the 920.25 es orb break?
Thoughts from the Vortex
Morning gang!
Will turnaround Tuesday come to play today like it has during this run? My bet is no this time. With the 950 square out playing out and a change in the character in the big boys on the playground (aapl, rimm, bidu, amzn). We have discussed here the similarities to the previous bear markets and the tests that should come. We WILL NOT KNOW if this is a new bull market until we get the reaction off the first correction move off the bottom. Will we have another 1929-30 market or the 1937-38 or the 73-74 market or better 2003 all over again?
I was sent today a chart of the ewz (Brazil market). Brazil is the largest trading partner with China. It is up 100% from the low not our 30%. It may also be showing the crack in the commodity trade as well. Hit em Hard
Monday, June 15, 2009
The Wheel
I have posted the wheel of time and price and the areas of influence. 950 was tested on 6/5 as a time/price whisch was a 90 degreee from the 3/6 square and previous resistance.
I also have included a chart of square levels...notice 925 is 90 deg and the 20 dma. Again, watching for action here since the weekly swing chart has turned down today.
SPX
Weekly chart has now turned down. Previous two times this has happened the index immediatly found a low and reversed (sign of the bull). It is also doing this right at the 20 dma or the holy grail. If the 20 does not hold and we close below 920 the bigger correction should be underway. The 950 time and price square out seemed to exert its influence.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Dollar
It is always better not to anticipate and the reason I'm putting this chart back up as it is unfolding as we are anticipating.... If this accelerates the bears will be in control of the equity markets.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
SRS
SRS that I have been stalking is setting up now as it is breaking out of this wedge. I am buying here at 19
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Friday, June 5, 2009
Market
Today is a square out of 6/5 date and the 950 level on the SPX... Again is it not interesting how those squares play out in the voodoo science. I'm watching the signs to see if we have a change in trend taking place or a power surge to the upside around 1012 spx.These charts so some interesting tells. I'm having trouble posting a chart of the square of ( chart but I will post when it is resolved.
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