Thoughts from The Vortex

Morning Gang!

The great Jeff Cooper pointed out today that we are exactly 7 months from the low. We are 7 years from the 2002 low. We are 70 months from the high of the first rally off the March 2003 low. The market plays out in 7s or known as the number of change/panic.

Are we getting a graceful exit on this backtest or are we set to explode one more time to the upside creating the narrowest of channels.

SRS or otherwise known as portfolio death looks good here as the real estate index gave a sell signal yesterday on an up day.

Hit em Hard

Thoughts from The Vortex

Hello Gang,

I have talked about the idea of the fear trade coming back for one last gasp before we get the inflation run everyone has been blabbering about for the past year. This monthly chart of the 30 year shows what has happened at 4%. Notice the crash and how quickly this happened. It now looks as if we are starting the test of the low in bond yields.

The other chart is the the housing sector which has now perfected a MA Topping pattern. Looking like the Fed is in buying mode in Bonds and this time housing won't play with the reduction of interest rates.

The SPX has now turned the weekly swing chart down today. I would look for a the S&P to try to find a low quickly today or tomorrow. This is called the theory of reflexivity. If we get continuation it will be a big change of character for the market and suggest a top for the year is in place. The SPX has found a low very quickly all the way up during this move. 180 degrees back is 1014. If a low is found an assault on 10,000 and 1120 comes quickly. My hunch is the top is in.