Saturday, August 24, 2019

Test

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Thoughts from The Vortex

Morning Gang!

The great Jeff Cooper pointed out today that we are exactly 7 months from the low. We are 7 years from the 2002 low. We are 70 months from the high of the first rally off the March 2003 low. The market plays out in 7s or known as the number of change/panic.

Are we getting a graceful exit on this backtest or are we set to explode one more time to the upside creating the narrowest of channels.

SRS or otherwise known as portfolio death looks good here as the real estate index gave a sell signal yesterday on an up day.

Hit em Hard

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Thoughts from The Vortex


Hello Gang,

I have talked about the idea of the fear trade coming back for one last gasp before we get the inflation run everyone has been blabbering about for the past year. This monthly chart of the 30 year shows what has happened at 4%. Notice the crash and how quickly this happened. It now looks as if we are starting the test of the low in bond yields.

The other chart is the the housing sector which has now perfected a MA Topping pattern. Looking like the Fed is in buying mode in Bonds and this time housing won't play with the reduction of interest rates.

The SPX has now turned the weekly swing chart down today. I would look for a the S&P to try to find a low quickly today or tomorrow. This is called the theory of reflexivity. If we get continuation it will be a big change of character for the market and suggest a top for the year is in place. The SPX has found a low very quickly all the way up during this move. 180 degrees back is 1014. If a low is found an assault on 10,000 and 1120 comes quickly. My hunch is the top is in.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Dollar

This does not look good for King Dollar. This says Higher Oil,Stocks,Gold, interest rates.

Read this ..http://bit.ly/ExipX

Read this...http://bit.ly/zWPxa

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning Gang,

Very interesting action over the holiday weekend. The ES (SPX futures)skyrocketed on Sunday and Monday with all the Asian Markets. Triggered by Gold getting over $1000. This morning we are almost back to the week ago plunge. This backtest may be the graceful exit the market gives...or a large spike higher as we are now over the 1080 degree mark again. Today is giving a very good risk reward for participants to short with defined stops. The cycles of time begin in ernest Sept 9th and play out thru Oct.

Are we in Deflation? Robert Prechter basis his large pullback to come off this theory...What is gold saying about that. China today even said we are printing too much money and they are buying Gold and diversifying their reserves..

Are we going into inflationary times... all indicators say yes.

Or are we going into a combination of the two? As we unwind the debt crisis of the US homeowner and coming commercial real estate refinance season, will we see inflation move to cetain assets (financial,commodities,precious metals) and deflation in real estate. That is my hunch.

Cycles should start to exert here for a trend reversal if we are to get a meaningful pullback.


The Dow is on a nice 1,2,3 pullback on the daily chart and still within the LROD down on 9/1 we will see.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Thoughts from the Vortex


Morning Gang

Well it seems the cycles are starting to play out. We have had a 90 degree overshoot of the 1012 mark. 1012 is 3 revolutions of 360 degrees up from the 666 low. The market often plays in 3s and 7s. As my last post talked about China and how its influence may push us around. The dollar is building a sneaky pattern here. If King dollar gets above 79.50 on the dx then the US stock markets may be in for the extended pullback.

Mr. Market has done a good job of holding both sides in the cautious camp. Surprise has always been to the upside. May be in for a big surprise if the dip buyers don't show up this time around.

Still looking for that last fear trade.

Signs all around....Government is upping margin req on leveraged ETFs and many firms are not allowing their sale. "The hand" may well be at work.

Yesterday GS printed a LROD (large range outside day) which engulfed 8 trading days... will we see follow thru. GS has also traced a mini head and shoulders patter with a second right shoulder (bearish). If Gs is also at the begining of tracing out a bigger head and shoulders, the head has formed and a pullback in the area of 135/140 looks in order.

Hit em Hard

Monday, August 17, 2009

Thoughts from the Vortex

One down day does not make a trend but we have to start somewhere. So far the 1012 number has shown extreme force on the wheel of time and price. If we are in a similiar market as the 1930 market we go to 151 SPX over the next year. I'm looking more from the wheel at 9 revolutions down as we are in the 477 390 camp for a secular bear market bottom. For that to happen we need to take out the 200 dma which will be a while. If we regain the 1012 mark a move through I believe 1200 is in the cards and fast.

Fireworks in China show that the US is losing its world ranking IMHO. If we are to start the grind lower, the fear and last flight to quality/safety should be at hand. My play will be the tmv tbt once we get the low as a 20+ bear market in bonds cycle should begin. I have a 12 yr old at home when he is in his 30s we should revisit the 1982 bull run again. :)

If the 30s play in about a year we will have the mother of all buy and hold scenarios take place. That was when the greats of the investing world made their names ie Templeton.

Mr . Dollar is trying again at the 50 dma. Will this be the time to bust amove higher? The second mouse gets the cheese. Oil should pullback very hard if that occurs, nat gas is already following supply and demad metrics. Is 25 dollar oil coming soon?

Tornado Out

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Thoughts from the Vortex



It is quite interesting when you look at the battlefield from the Generals perch. They always seem to know when the battle is won or lost. General RIMM gave an expansion pivot sell signal today and El Jefe GS blasted thru the 20 period moving average. Goldman could be circling the wagons before making a thrust from this pattern which is called the Holy Grail. If GS does not rally tomorrow but extends lower a "tell" may be in for the financials.

Again GS has held the 166 number or 1080 degrees up from the low and printing some negative pattern....141 or 180 pullback should be in the cards.

The SPX has pivoted off the 1012 1080 degree mark as well ... does 880 come soon or 360 degrees down from here? Where are the Rough Riders to keep pushing up the Hill.

General AAPL tomorrow

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Thoughts from the Vortex


The Nas has been the place of leadeship during this run but as you can see we are pushing hard against a big trendline. Below 1600 on the NQ looks like a pullback to begin

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Interesting Stat

Our friends at Minyanville have put out a stat that is worth keeping in the noggin. The 1929-1930 bear market rally lasted 146 days and was up 46%. We are at 145 days and the same 46% rally. The market in 1930 went on to lose 85% from there which would take us to 150 SPX. I'm still thinking we get 1010 spx or 1080 degrees up from the low that marks a top.

"History does not repeat it rhymes"

Mark Twain

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning gang

I think this chart of the dollar spells it out. We are at a juncture. We have had 2 rule of 4 breakdowns which saw the SPX rally off the dollars fall. Yesterday was an interesting print as we may have carved out two feet or a double bottom. If the SPX is to move down this pattern needs to play out. we will see.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

GS update

I'm taking half of the remaining GS short off here 160.35 +5.60 and moving stop to 164 on balance. GS printed double up inside on yesterdays daily chart and broke down today. 159.30 and we may see a Get out of Dodge for GS.

Monday, July 27, 2009

GS update

GS printed a NR7 on the daily chart on Friday. This usually signals volatility to come. 162.65 will trigger a short in the stock. it did this am and has not recovered much. This break again will be a second attempt...ie the 2nd mouse gets the cheese. 166 square out is exerting influence. Never ceases to amaze me how news and square outs occur. CTFC is investigating GS on Cap and Trade benefits. Heads up

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Thoughts from the Vortex

Gang

The market has been in ramp mode for the past couple of weeks which has totally shocked and awed everyone, especially the bears. I have been following the 60 min spx chart for months now and have noticed the many rule of 4 breakouts and breakdowns it has been giving. There have been many more breakdowns! I believe we are setting up for a very nice one if the SPX comes in. On the chart at point 4 I think we could get a potential waterfall decline if we trigger this point. With the cycles pointing down into September we may have a nice setup at hand. Mr. Market will let us know the schedule.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

GS

shorted 165.95 2pt stop

GS

GS touching 164 ...166 is on deck do we reverse from there? 166 is 1080 degrees up from the low on the square of 9 chart. Chinese stocks are reversing now.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning gang!

The market is trying to breakout to the upside on all the companies posting better than expected earnings. Even though the earnings were derived from cost cutting and advances in technology which reduces headcount. Most companies are forecasting lower revenues in the 3rd qtr. Seems to me risk is high. The cycles are pointing down into September October. A break of 920 ish could begin a crash like decline. This can still happen even on the last couple of points to 980 or 1020 which is 1080 degrees up from the 666.

MS reported bad earnings today... it is running higher. I'm shorting here 27.15 2 pt stop swing

stopped out of all energy.....of course it reversed after. Looking to reenter.

Monday, July 20, 2009

Energy

stopped on USO and APC this am.. Just have HES

Friday, July 17, 2009

ES update

I took half off es +2 then stopped BE..... I put on another short at 935 ...ES has issued a triangle pendulum sell signal on the 10 min chart. ... I'm half out now...sory for the late update...


SPG looking good...if it can get thru 49.7 should move to 49