Interesting Stat

Our friends at Minyanville have put out a stat that is worth keeping in the noggin. The 1929-1930 bear market rally lasted 146 days and was up 46%. We are at 145 days and the same 46% rally. The market in 1930 went on to lose 85% from there which would take us to 150 SPX. I'm still thinking we get 1010 spx or 1080 degrees up from the low that marks a top.

"History does not repeat it rhymes"

Mark Twain

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning gang

I think this chart of the dollar spells it out. We are at a juncture. We have had 2 rule of 4 breakdowns which saw the SPX rally off the dollars fall. Yesterday was an interesting print as we may have carved out two feet or a double bottom. If the SPX is to move down this pattern needs to play out. we will see.

GS update

I'm taking half of the remaining GS short off here 160.35 +5.60 and moving stop to 164 on balance. GS printed double up inside on yesterdays daily chart and broke down today. 159.30 and we may see a Get out of Dodge for GS.

GS update

GS printed a NR7 on the daily chart on Friday. This usually signals volatility to come. 162.65 will trigger a short in the stock. it did this am and has not recovered much. This break again will be a second attempt...ie the 2nd mouse gets the cheese. 166 square out is exerting influence. Never ceases to amaze me how news and square outs occur. CTFC is investigating GS on Cap and Trade benefits. Heads up

Thoughts from the Vortex

Gang

The market has been in ramp mode for the past couple of weeks which has totally shocked and awed everyone, especially the bears. I have been following the 60 min spx chart for months now and have noticed the many rule of 4 breakouts and breakdowns it has been giving. There have been many more breakdowns! I believe we are setting up for a very nice one if the SPX comes in. On the chart at point 4 I think we could get a potential waterfall decline if we trigger this point. With the cycles pointing down into September we may have a nice setup at hand. Mr. Market will let us know the schedule.

GS

shorted 165.95 2pt stop

GS

GS touching 164 ...166 is on deck do we reverse from there? 166 is 1080 degrees up from the low on the square of 9 chart. Chinese stocks are reversing now.

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning gang!

The market is trying to breakout to the upside on all the companies posting better than expected earnings. Even though the earnings were derived from cost cutting and advances in technology which reduces headcount. Most companies are forecasting lower revenues in the 3rd qtr. Seems to me risk is high. The cycles are pointing down into September October. A break of 920 ish could begin a crash like decline. This can still happen even on the last couple of points to 980 or 1020 which is 1080 degrees up from the 666.

MS reported bad earnings today... it is running higher. I'm shorting here 27.15 2 pt stop swing

stopped out of all energy.....of course it reversed after. Looking to reenter.

Energy

stopped on USO and APC this am.. Just have HES

ES update

I took half off es +2 then stopped BE..... I put on another short at 935 ...ES has issued a triangle pendulum sell signal on the 10 min chart. ... I'm half out now...sory for the late update...


SPG looking good...if it can get thru 49.7 should move to 49

SPG

shorting SPG 50.41

energy

I was stopped APA, OIH
USO still on stop 34.7
HES stop 52.35
APC 47.01

We will see if we get any dollar help

energy

Update

Shorted es 934
stopped yesterday srs

Update

SRS

I'm going to try a new SRS position here 19.55 1pt stop

adding

adding HES USO APC and shorting OIH

Morning gang!

We are in Pamplona mode this am as INTC seems to have saved the day. I was stopped on APA but we are still fighting in the other oil shorts. Those are half positions and I am going to put on full positions today as the chart shows the oil and gas index is backtesting its 200 dma and has generated a -1+2 bearish setup. One can look to DUG ERY or shorting the OIH as well.

Heat Map

http://www.finviz.com/publish/071409/sp500_small1525.png

gs update

moving stop BE

gs

Shorting GS here 149.02

ES update

We were triggered early on the ES trade ...I believe we may be setting up a 2nd mouse move to the lows...

Swings Energy

I am putting out some energy swings here - half positions- will qualify tomorrow
short uso 32.34
short apa 70.83
short apc 43.50
short hes 48.97

I was stopped on srs and looking to reenter

Energy and SPX

Is Energy front running the SPX by about 2 weeks? I have not changed the energy chart since I posted it 2 weeks ago. Both are at the 20 dma now. Heads up!

Energy

Keep energy stocks on the radar....all are forming holy grail patterns on the dailies. Setting up for the next leg down. The Holy grail is the 20 dma.

ES

going to short ES on ORB break to downside

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning Gang!

Well the the big dog is out with earnings and witha large beat... Congress will be upset with the numbers IMHO. GS lost 21% on com real estate this qtr or close to 500 million. The death spike in CRE is getting closer. Also all you fundies out there how can COF still trade at 21 and CIT at 1 and about to BK?

I have put the FXI or the China index etf up to show the potential R4 breakdown. Keep it on the radar. Turnaround Tuesday may be at hand watching for up open and plunge. Hit em Hard

update

pot to 85.5 stop will close out at EOD

out of ARE SPG PSA


SRS hanging in there

POT

moving to 87

Tornado Conspiracy

Just going to put this out there...GS reports next Tuesday morning which I believe will be their best qtr ever. I have been talking ad nausea about 166 as the 1080 degree or 2 full revolutions up in price as the target for GS... Does GS call the top of this thing? Do we hear that Buffet exits GS on this move?

REITs

taking half off all of them +1 here....stops BE

POT

POT is at 86 half off the balance +5.5 stop now 89 and letting ride but a bounce should come here off the 150 and 200dma on the dailies.....If does not hold 80 in the cards and this time I mean today

POT

Target 86 ...I will show the anatomy of this trade later today as it had multiple setups that triggered. taking a little more off her +2.5....stop on balance BE

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning gang!

Market is churning this am. Our SRS trade is doing nicely. I shorted POT this am on the ORB break. I added small shorts on my fav REITs PSA ARE and SPG. I'm out half of POT as of this writing.

About the SPX 865ish is the 270 degree mark down that we bounced off of. 270 degrees is typically the area to take some off a trade as reversals happen in this area. Professor Cooper pointed out this am that the 28 and 35 trading day cycles have all nailed crashes. 7/22 will be the 28th day from this swing high of 956....I say if we bide time until then and move to 865 this time we will pick up speed as the 2nd time thru 270 degrees and the mouse will get the cheese.

Energy first
Other commodities next?
Financials?
then tech?

GS

out -1

GS

trying GS on upside ORB breakdown ...short 142.73

SRS

adding srs on ORB breakout

Dollar key

Yesterday the dollar was repelled by the 50dma. Do we recapture and spike to the cross? Then Rule of 4 breakout? If that happens we will be in full SPX slide. Keep it on the radar as 81.14 is the breakout.

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning Gang!

It looks like we are going to get a pop up open. We exited all our energy plays for nice profits yesterday and it looks like they are in rally mode this am. the second piece of SDS will be taken away this am on a gap down open. SRS second piece stop will be the only position we hold with a stop at 20.

The bulls are defending the 875 level with a vengence as well as the media. I would look for the action here ...if we go through 875 again I think there is no looking back as the pattern suggests a 820 810 target. I am in scalp mode now until we get a break up or down. Watching for an up open that does not hold. ORBs will give direction today.

Hit'em Hard!

Stalking

I am putting up the charts of these crack induced trading vehicles. TBT and TMV which are short the 20yr and 30yr bonds. This will be one of my favorite plays if if if if we get the major sell off. I believe the FEAR trade trumps the inflation trade. the TMV is 3x the 30yr

update

taking uso off here 32.80 +5.20

moving apc 41.5
moving APA to 66.5

sds got within .01 of +2 stops BE

Update

I'm taking all ung off here
moving uso stop to 34.50
moving apc to 42
moving apa to 67
USO 33.5

Taking half off srs here stops 20
take SDS half off 61.45

The energy plays may be on another leg down....but want to protect nice profits
BAC finally has broken 11.95 I believe 9 is in the cards

apc

moving to 43

Thoughts from the Vortex

Morning gang

As we have come to the 882 number the first week of July as referenced by the Wheel of Time and Price. 882 is is termed a "master" square as it has vibrated off the high and the lows and the points in time. So where are we now? As the 200 dma is also at the 882 level, we need to let Mr. Market speak. Will it reverse , consolidate or accelerate. I would look for a bounce IMHO to look for possible entries as we are getting an up bounce. If we take out 850 I would suggest we are headed for a test of the lows. The finger pointing in Washington is now in full gear as the wasted first stimulus is running out of gas. Big Government is coming faster than people expect as newer regulations are being put in the CTFC as referenced by the large range down yesterday in CME and ICE. They are gapping down again this am. Oil will have a 50% pullback from within the move at 59 and I am close enough and will be looking to take off my energy plays today.

Hit em HArd!

update

moving APA stop to 68.5
moving APC stop to 44
USO to 35.10
UNG to 13
SRS will give a confirmed breakout at 22

Watching SDS 59.45 will be an R4 breakout swing trigger

SPX

We are at the 200dma on the spx now. Will be interesting to see the action. I believe the bulls will fight here. SPG broke and SRS is above its 50 dma for the first time in a very long time. Need to see if we get follow thru.

Thoughts from the Vortex

As we all come back from a relaxing weekend we find ourselves hit in the face riots in China, oil trading down hard and Europe in the red. I am taking half off UNG and USO this am and moving balance on apa and apc to +2 on their balances. We are getting a good gap down this am. 882 may be underway after our open and test of the 888 square. The 200 dma will be one to watch as it may give a get out of dodge sell signal.

Hit em HArd

4th of July

Everyone have a great 4th of July!

USO, UNG, APA,APC still looking good on the dailies

Swine Flu

Jeff Cooper pointed out today some interesting figures.

The Black Plague began around 666 years ago and peaked in what a 3 years later would equate to 2012

World population is currently just over 6.66 billion

The very large breakouts in South America are not getting much attention and their schools are being shut down for a month.

update

APC taking another half off +3 stops +1 now
apa taking another half off here +2.50 ish stop +1
USO is toying with me and I have taken off half +1.85 stop 37.25 now
UNG moving to BE now


The market is hanging on its lower ORB now....rally may be coming here or waterfall down to get a trend day going.

Giddy up

update

Gang all the energy swings are gapping lower today. Taking all half off since they have gapped over out 2pt profit. Stops Breakeven on balance. We may have a F3 vortex today! Giddy up

Thoughts from the Vortex

Again I have to say this is the hardest game on the planet and this am shows the reason why. As I review my swing positions for the past two weeks it is disappointing and quite humorous how Mr. Market has given a taste of the ice cream only to pull the bowl away before a real scoop has been given. But that is the game we have signed up to play and we play against Michael, Kobe and LeBron everyday.

As of writing this blog the futures are down hard and most of my candidates for today are gapping past the entry prices. I will wait for the opening range to develop try to gain an edge. Are we getting a rubber band pullback ready to make an advance past the highs or is the wheel of time and price exerting its influence and a 882/883 level square out of July 4 area playing out. We will see.

On the Radar

SRS 19.80 swing alert 2pt stop off yestedays lizard buy setup... I bought a small piece back at 19.25 as I was stopped on 2nd piece at 19 yesterday. Grrrrrrr

Energy plays working this am

Cycles and the 4th of July

You know I have been talking about the possible terrorist/war risk in the matter of cycles. Lets file this news story in the back of our minds as the world can move at a very rapid pace that not all understand...including this author.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1193941/North-Korea-plan-missile-launch-Hawaii-Independence-Day.html

AMZN

taking it all off here +2.5

AMZN

moving stop to 82.30

AMZN

half off last piece here +2.20 move balance to +1

USO and UNG

Both acting nicely...USO just triggered a R4 breakdown on the 60 min chart

update

AMZN move stop on first piece +1 and second be
SRS second piece out with a scratch
aapl out -2
gs out second piece be

Is this where we are?

apc

APC short 46

AMZN

AMZN short here 84